Modeling of Dengue cases in pediatric age using the objective regression regressive methodology in Villa Clara, Cuba
1 Hygiene and Epidemiology Department, Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing (FHTN), University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara (UMS-VC), Cuba.
2 Prognostic Department, Provincial Meteorological Center of Villa Clara, Cuba.
3 Infectious Diseases Department, Villa Clara Provincial Center of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Microbiology (PCHEM-VC), Cuba.
4 Parasitology Department, Regional High Specialty Hospital (HARE), Dr. Juan Graham Casasús, México.
5 Hygiene and Epidemiology Department, Faculty Technological, University of Medical Sciences of Camaguey, Cuba.
6 Biology Department, Center for Bioactive Chemicals (CBQ), Central University "Marta Abreu" of Las Villas. Villa Clara, Cuba.
7 EurAsia Heart Foundation, Switzerland.
Research Article
International Journal of Biological and Pharmaceutical Sciences Archive, 2023, 05(02), 089–098.
Article DOI: 10.53771/ijbpsa.2023.5.2.0048
Publication history:
Received on 21 April 2023; revised on 01 June 2023; accepted on 04 June 2023
Abstract:
Dengue continues to be the main arbovirosis, with endemic characteristics, in at least 100 countries, affecting an average of 50 million patients per year, and with a high incidence in pediatric ages. To mathematically model the cases of Dengue in pediatric age through the methodology of the Objective Regression Regressive, during the period 2016-2021 in the province of Villa Clara, Cuba. A descriptive, retrospective, analytical-statistical (Objective Regression Regressive methodology) and prospective longitudinal study was carried out. The study area corresponded to Villa Clara province, which is located in the center of Cuba, where the population under study was the 13 municipalities that make up the province. The total number of cases of Dengue fever during the six years covered by the study was 2 013. A database was created for confirmed cases of Dengue in Villa Clara during the years 2016 to 2021, specifically for children under 18 years of age, where the data were entered in files and processed using the SPSS version 22 statistical package, which made it possible to carry out a mathematical modeling of Dengue cases, in the short and long term. The plotting of confirmed cases of Dengue fever showed that the highest incidence of cases was in the months from July to November, with an average of 28 cases studied. The short-term model depends on the cases returned in 1, 2, 7 and 14 months, which indicates a strong dependence on the previous month, so that all monitoring, surveillance, management, control and sanitation actions carried out in advance will have a positive impact on the following month, while the long-term model depended on the cases returned in 12 months, and the trend turned out to be positive and significant. It was possible to model the cases of Dengue, where the trend was to a non-significant decrease in the short term, while in the long term, this trend was to a significant increase, and for which, the cases depended on 1, 2, 7 and 14 months ago, so the best model was the long term, being able to predict the behavior of this infectious entity one year in advance, as well as the extension to longer dates in years.
Keywords:
Dengue; Pediatric age; ROR methodology; mathematical modeling; Villa Clara
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